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Short Term Strategy · Research Note

K.P. Energy

Holding horizon · 1m · 3m · 6mTarget: Active, high-probability setups

This name has since left the Short Term Strategy screen — the note is kept for reference.

The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.

Benjamin Graham
Price

₹303

Market cap

₹2,187.16 Cr

Price ÷ Earnings

12.01×

Price ÷ Book

4.18×

Return on capital

32.12%

The contractor who also owns the building

Most people picture a wind farm and think only of the giant turbines spinning against the Kutch sky. K.P. Energy sits a step behind that picture. Think of a wedding contractor in your neighbourhood — the fellow who books the ground, gets the municipal permissions, lays the water and electricity lines, puts up the mandap, and then, on some plots, keeps a hall of his own to rent out year after year. That is K.P. Energy in the wind business. It scouts the land, secures the permits, builds the balance-of-plant infrastructure and hands over turnkey wind projects to clients across Gujarat — and on a few sites it holds the turbines itself and sells power as an independent producer. One arm earns a fat one-time fee; the other arm collects rent for two decades.

We are looking at this one for a short leash — one month, three, maybe six — so the question is narrow: is the business firing right now, and is the market paying a fair price for that fire today?

A furnace that keeps getting hotter

The sales line tells its own story without any dressing up. Turnover was a modest ₹27 crore back in March 2015. By March 2023 it had reached ₹438 crore, then ₹471 crore in FY24, then ₹936 crore in FY25 — and the FY26 figure on the books stands at ₹1,497 crore. That is roughly a doubling of the top line in two years, and it is why the five-year compounded sales growth reads 84% while profit has compounded near 97% over the same stretch. The ten-year median sales growth sits around the two-thirds mark, so this is not a one-off good quarter — it is a sustained tailwind. Net profit has walked in step: ₹58 crore in FY24, ₹115 crore in FY25, ₹181 crore now.

What separates a good business from a busy one is what it earns on the capital it employs. Here the numbers are genuinely rare for an infrastructure name — return on capital employed near 39% and return on equity of 43%, with the three-year and five-year ROE both parked in the forties. The contractor, in other words, is not buying growth by pouring money down a well. Debtor days have tightened from 121 to 41, which means clients are paying faster and cash is coming home quicker. For a company that does project work, that improvement in collection is worth more than any press release.

The one honest asterisk

Now the caution, because credibility demands it. Equity capital held flat at ₹11 crore from FY19 all the way to FY23, then jumped to ₹33 crore in FY24 and has stayed there since. On a ₹5 face value, that tripling of the equity base is not a rounding error — it reflects a genuine expansion of the share count, most likely a bonus or a raise. So the "no dilution" comfort you get in many of our notes does not fully apply here; existing owners saw their slice divided. The saving grace is that profit grew far faster than the share count over that window, so per-share earnings still rose smartly. Promoters, for their part, have not been selling — their stake has crept up from 44.8% to 45.3%, and domestic institutions have quietly begun buying, from zero to about 1%. When the family that runs the show is adding rather than trimming, that is a signal worth respecting.

Paying eleven for a business that usually fetches eighteen

Here is the part that makes this a candidate for a short hold. The stock trades at a price-earnings multiple of 11.6. Its own five-year median is 18.1 and its ten-year median 17.2 — so today's buyer is paying roughly a third less than the company has historically commanded, about 36% below the five-year yardstick. That gap did not appear because the business slowed; it appeared because the price fell 38% over the past year, from a high of ₹540 down towards ₹310. The market got scared, the earnings kept climbing, and the multiple compressed. That is precisely the mismatch a short-term value hunter looks for: a fast-growing, high-return business marked down to a bargain multiple by a jittery crowd. The dividend is a token 0.21% — you are not here for income, you are here for the re-rating.

The risks are real and worth naming. This is a project-lumpy business — one delayed wind order and a quarter can look ugly, which is exactly how the earlier sales dips of FY18 and FY20 happened. It is concentrated in Gujarat and tied to policy and tariff cycles. And at a ₹2,100 crore market cap, sentiment can swing hard in either direction on thin news.

Weigh it plainly: a ₹2,100 crore company growing sales and profit at extraordinary rates, earning 40%-plus on capital, with promoters adding and institutions arriving, trading a third cheaper than its own history. For a one-to-six-month position, the setup is attractive — provided you accept the lumpiness and keep your stop honest. Buy the discount, not the story.

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