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Deep Value · Research Note

Can Fin Homes

Holding horizon · 1–3 yearsTarget: Good · ~1 year

“Buy a dollar for fifty cents.”

— Benjamin Graham
Price

₹730

Market cap

₹9,720.33 Cr

Price ÷ Earnings

8.62×

Price ÷ Book

1.69×

Return on capital

9.16%

A Lender That Keeps Its Loans Small

Picture the neighbourhood grocer who refuses to extend giant credit lines to any single family. Instead he lets a hundred households buy their rice and dal on modest tab, each small enough that no single default can wreck his ledger. That, in essence, is Can Fin Homes — a housing finance company that hands out relatively small home loans to salaried folk and to self-employed shopkeepers, spreading its risk across many borrowers rather than betting the house on a handful of builders. Its parent, Canara Bank, holds just under thirty percent, which lends the enterprise a certain sobriety of temperament that I find agreeable in a money-lender.

The intelligent investor should note the difference between a business that lends carefully and one that merely lends fast. Can Fin has chosen the former path, and the numbers bear the discipline out.

The Weighing Machine Has Been Napping

Here is what caught my eye. Over ten years, this company grew its loan book — its sales, in the accountant's tongue — at a compounded fifteen percent, and over the last five years at sixteen. Profits marched faster still, compounding near nineteen to twenty-one percent. The most recent trailing figures show sales up eight percent and profit up a brisker twenty-eight. A business that trebles its earnings while its share price treads water is precisely the sort of contradiction Mr. Market occasionally offers to the patient.

And tread water it has. The stock has returned a mournful three percent annually over five years and actually *fell* one percent a year over three, while the underlying business did nothing but prosper. The voting machine, you see, has been voting against a company the weighing machine ought to reward. Such divergences do not last forever; they are the raw material of deep value.

Now to the point that separates a real bargain from a wish. Can Fin trades today at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7. Its own median over the past five years was 13.4, and over ten years 15.1. In plain arithmetic, the stock sits roughly thirty-five percent below its five-year normal and about forty-two percent below its ten-year normal — and this is not a fallen angel whose earnings collapsed, but a company whose profits kept climbing. You are being offered a proven compounder at a meaningful discount to the price the market itself judged fair for most of the last decade.

No Sleight of Hand in the Share Count

I always turn to the equity-capital line, because it tells me whether management is enriching me or merely enriching the count of shares. Here the story is clean as a whistle. The equity capital has stood unmoved at ₹27 crore every single year from 2015 through 2026 — not a rupee of dilution across an eleven-year stretch. This is unusual and worth savouring. Many finance companies fund their growth by repeatedly printing new shares, quietly shrinking each existing owner's slice. Can Fin instead grew its loan book fifteen percent a year while keeping the ownership pie divided into exactly the same number of pieces. The book value has swelled to ₹449 a share on the strength of retained earnings alone. That is honest compounding.

Return on equity has held near nineteen to twenty percent throughout, and a near-two-percent dividend yield tops it off — a small cash acknowledgement that shareholders exist.

Where I Would Keep My Guard Up

Let me not sell you a horse without inspecting its teeth. The screen flags a low interest-coverage ratio and hints the company "might be capitalizing the interest cost." For an ordinary manufacturer, low interest coverage would alarm me greatly; for a lender, borrowing cheap and lending dear *is* the business, so the ratio reads differently. Still, the note about capitalizing interest deserves a raised eyebrow. When a firm books interest as an asset rather than an expense, reported profits can flatter reality. I would want the annual report open to satisfy myself the earnings are as solid as they appear.

The ROCE of nine percent, set beside an ROE near twenty, simply reflects the leverage inherent to all finance — money borrowed to be re-lent. That is normal, not sinister, but it means any spell of rising defaults or squeezed spreads hits the equity harder. A housing lender lives and dies by the quality of its book and the cost of its funds; a careless year on either front can undo three good ones.

The Sum of It

Here is a disciplined small-ticket lender, backed by a public-sector bank, growing its book in the mid-teens, earning a steady twenty percent on equity, diluting nobody, paying a modest dividend — and offered at well under its own long-run valuation because the share price has sulked while the business thrived. The margin of safety lies in that gap between a fair business and an unfair price. Verify the interest-capitalization footnote, size the position sensibly, and let one to three years do the weighing.

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